Predicting Emergency Department Volume Using Forecasting Methods to Create a “Surge Response” for Noncrisis Events

Objectives:  This study investigated whether emergency department (ED) variables could be used in mathematical models to predict a future surge in ED volume based on recent levels of use of physician capacity. The models may be used to guide decisions related to on‐call staffing in non–crisis‐related surges of patient volume. Methods:  A retrospective analysis was conducted using information spanning July 2009 through June 2010 from a large urban teaching hospital with a Level I trauma center. A comparison of significance was used to assess the impact of multiple patient‐specific variables on the state of the ED. Physician capacity was modeled based on historical physician treatment capacity and productivity. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to determine the probability that the available physician capacity would be sufficient to treat all patients forecasted to arrive in the next time period. The prediction horizons used were 15 minutes, 30 minutes, 1 hour, 2 hours, 4 hours, 8 hours, and 12 hours. Five consecutive months of patient data from July 2010 through November 2010, similar to the data used to generate the models, was used to validate the models. Positive predictive values, Type I and Type II errors, and real‐time accuracy in predicting noncrisis surge events were used to evaluate the forecast accuracy of the models. Results:  The ratio of new patients requiring treatment over total physician capacity (termed the care utilization ratio [CUR]) was deemed a robust predictor of the state of the ED (with a CUR greater than 1 indicating that the physician capacity would not be sufficient to treat all patients forecasted to arrive). Prediction intervals of 30 minutes, 8 hours, and 12 hours performed best of all models analyzed, with deviances of 1.000, 0.951, and 0.864, respectively. A 95% significance was used to validate the models against the July 2010 through November 2010 data set. Positive predictive values ranged from 0.738 to 0.872, true positives ranged from 74% to 94%, and true negatives ranged from 70% to 90% depending on the threshold used to determine the state of the ED with the 30‐minute prediction model. Conclusions:  The CUR is a new and robust indicator of an ED system’s performance. The study was able to model the tradeoff of longer time to response versus shorter but more accurate predictions, by investigating different prediction intervals. Current practice would have been improved by using the proposed models and would have identified the surge in patient volume earlier on noncrisis days.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/92015/1/j.1553-2712.2012.01359.x.pd

The telomere of human chromosome 1p contains at least two independent autosomal dominant congenital cataract genes.

AIMS: Multiple genetic causes of congenital cataract have been identified, both as a component of syndromes and in families that present with isolated congenital cataract. Linkage analysis was used to map the genetic locus in a six generation Australian family presenting with total congenital cataract. METHODS: Microsatellite markers located across all known autosomal dominant congenital cataract loci were genotyped in all recruited family members of the Tasmanian family. Both two point and multipoint linkage analysis were used to assess each locus under an autosomal dominant model. RESULTS: Significant linkage was detected at the telomere of the p arm of chromosome 1, with a maximum two point LOD of 4.21 at marker D1S507, a maximum multipoint exact LOD of 5.44, and an estimated location score of 5.61 at marker D1S507. Haplotype analysis places the gene inside a critical region between D1S228 and D1S199, a distance of approximately 6 megabases. The candidate gene PAX7 residing within the critical interval was excluded by direct sequencing in affected individuals. CONCLUSION: This is the third report of congenital cataract linkage to 1ptel. The critical region as defined by the shared haplotype in this family is clearly centromeric from the Volkmann cataract locus identified through study of a Danish family, indicating that two genes causing autosomal dominant congenital cataract map to the telomeric region of chromosome 1p

Patient/Family Education for Newly Diagnosed Pediatric Oncology Patients

There is a paucity of data to support evidence-based practices in the provision of patient/family education in the context of a new childhood cancer diagnosis. Since the majority of children with cancer are treated on pediatric oncology clinical trials, lack of effective patient/family education has the potential to negatively affect both patient and clinical trial outcomes. The Children’s Oncology Group Nursing Discipline convened an interprofessional expert panel from within and beyond pediatric oncology to review available and emerging evidence and develop expert consensus recommendations regarding harmonization of patient/family education practices for newly diagnosed pediatric oncology patients across institutions. Five broad principles, with associated recommendations, were identified by the panel, including recognition that (1) in pediatric oncology, patient/family education is family-centered; (2) a diagnosis of childhood cancer is overwhelming and the family needs time to process the diagnosis and develop a plan for managing ongoing life demands before they can successfully learn to care for the child; (3) patient/family education should be an interprofessional endeavor with 3 key areas of focus: (a) diagnosis/treatment, (b) psychosocial coping, and (c) care of the child; (4) patient/family education should occur across the continuum of care; and (5) a supportive environment is necessary to optimize learning. Dissemination and implementation of these recommendations will set the stage for future studies that aim to develop evidence to inform best practices, and ultimately to establish the standard of care for effective patient/family education in pediatric oncology

Usual care for youth with autism spectrum disorder: Community-based providers’ reported familiarity with treatment practices

ObjectiveTo examine patterns and predictors of familiarity with transdisciplinary psychosocial (e.g., non-pharmacologic) practices for practitioners treating youths with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in the United States.MethodPractitioners (n = 701) from behavioral, education, medical, and mental health backgrounds who worked with youth (ages 7–22) with ASD completed the Usual Care for Autism Survey, which assessed provider demographics and self-reported familiarity with transdisciplinary treatment practices for the most common referral problems of ASD. We examined relations between provider-, setting-, and client-level characteristics with familiarity of key groups of the treatment practices (practice sets). Practice sets were identified using exploratory factor analysis (EFA), and demographic predictors of practice subsets were examined using generalized estimating equations (GEE).ResultsThe EFA yielded a three-factor solution: (1) environmental modifications/antecedent strategies; (2) behavior analytic strategies; and (3) cognitive strategies, with overall familiarity ranked in this order. Medical providers indicated the least familiarity across disciplines. More experience with ASD and treating those with intellectual disabilities predicted greater familiarity with only environmental modifications/antecedent strategies and behavior analytic, but not cognitive strategies. Experience treating low SES clients predicted familiarity with environmental modification and behavior analytic strategies while experience treating high SES clients predicted familiarity with behavior analytic and cognitive strategies.ConclusionThis is the first study to identify transdisciplinary, interpretable sets of practices for treating youth with ASD based on community providers’ reported familiarity. Results highlight factors associated with familiarity with practice sets, which is essential for mapping practice availability, and optimizing training and dissemination efforts for youth with ASD

Grifonin-1: A Small HIV-1 Entry Inhibitor Derived from the Algal Lectin, Griffithsin

Background: Griffithsin, a 121-residue protein isolated from a red algal Griffithsia sp., binds high mannose N-linked glycans of virus surface glycoproteins with extremely high affinity, a property that allows it to prevent the entry of primary isolates and laboratory strains of T- and M-tropic HIV-1. We used the sequence of a portion of griffithsin's sequence as a design template to create smaller peptides with antiviral and carbohydrate-binding properties. Methodology/Results: The new peptides derived from a trio of homologous β-sheet repeats that comprise the motifs responsible for its biological activity. Our most active antiviral peptide, grifonin-1 (GRFN-1), had an EC50 of 190.8±11.0 nM in in vitro TZM-bl assays and an EC50 of 546.6±66.1 nM in p24gag antigen release assays. GRFN-1 showed considerable structural plasticity, assuming different conformations in solvents that differed in polarity and hydrophobicity. Higher concentrations of GRFN-1 formed oligomers, based on intermolecular β-sheet interactions. Like its parent protein, GRFN-1 bound viral glycoproteins gp41 and gp120 via the N-linked glycans on their surface. Conclusion: Its substantial antiviral activity and low toxicity in vitro suggest that GRFN-1 and/or its derivatives may have therapeutic potential as topical and/or systemic agents directed against HIV-1

Losartan Slows Pancreatic Tumor Progression and Extends Survival of SPARC-Null Mice by Abrogating Aberrant TGFβ Activation

Pancreatic adenocarcinoma, a desmoplastic disease, is the fourth leading cause of cancer-related death in the Western world due, in large part, to locally invasive primary tumor growth and ensuing metastasis. SPARC is a matricellular protein that governs extracellular matrix (ECM) deposition and maturation during tissue remodeling, particularly, during wound healing and tumorigenesis. In the present study, we sought to determine the mechanism by which lack of host SPARC alters the tumor microenvironment and enhances invasion and metastasis of an orthotopic model of pancreatic cancer. We identified that levels of active TGFβ1 were increased significantly in tumors grown in SPARC-null mice. TGFβ1 contributes to many aspects of tumor development including metastasis, endothelial cell permeability, inflammation and fibrosis, all of which are altered in the absence of stromal-derived SPARC. Given these results, we performed a survival study to assess the contribution of increased TGFβ1 activity to tumor progression in SPARC-null mice using losartan, an angiotensin II type 1 receptor antagonist that diminishes TGFβ1 expression and activation in vivo. Tumors grown in SPARC-null mice progressed more quickly than those grown in wild-type littermates leading to a significant reduction in median survival. However, median survival of SPARC-null animals treated with losartan was extended to that of losartan-treated wild-type controls. In addition, losartan abrogated TGFβ induced gene expression, reduced local invasion and metastasis, decreased vascular permeability and altered the immune profile of tumors grown in SPARC-null mice. These data support the concept that aberrant TGFβ1-activation in the absence of host SPARC contributes significantly to tumor progression and suggests that SPARC, by controlling ECM deposition and maturation, can regulate TGFβ availability and activation

Circulating sex hormones in relation to anthropometric, sociodemographic and behavioural factors in an international dataset of 12,300 men

Introduction Sex hormones have been implicated in the etiology of a number of diseases. To better understand disease etiology and the mechanisms of disease-risk factor associations, this analysis aimed to investigate the associations of anthropometric, sociodemographic and behavioural factors with a range of circulating sex hormones and sex hormone-binding globulin. Methods Statistical analyses of individual participant data from 12,330 male controls aged 25-85 years from 25 studies involved in the Endogenous Hormones Nutritional Biomarkers and Prostate Cancer Collaborative Group. Analysis of variance was used to estimate geometric means adjusted for study and relevant covariates. Results Older age was associated with higher concentrations of sex hormone-binding globulin and dihydrotestosterone and lower concentrations of dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate, free testosterone, androstenedione, androstanediol glucuronide and free estradiol. Higher body mass index was associated with higher concentrations of free estradiol, androstanediol glucuronide, estradiol and estrone and lower concentrations of dihydrotestosterone, testosterone, sex hormone-binding globulin, free testosterone, androstenedione and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate. Taller height was associated with lower concentrations of androstenedione, testosterone, free testosterone and sex hormone-binding globulin and higher concentrations of androstanediol glucuronide. Current smoking was associated with higher concentrations of androstenedione, sex hormone-binding globulin and testosterone. Alcohol consumption was associated with higher concentrations of dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate, androstenedione and androstanediol glucuronide. East Asians had lower concentrations of androstanediol glucuronide and African Americans had higher concentrations of estrogens. Education and marital status were modestly associated with a small number of hormones. Conclusion Circulating sex hormones in men are strongly associated with age and body mass index, and to a lesser extent with smoking status and alcohol consumption.Peer reviewe

Genome-Wide Association Study in BRCA1 Mutation Carriers Identifies Novel Loci Associated with Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk

BRCA1-associated breast and ovarian cancer risks can be modified by common genetic variants. To identify further cancer risk-modifying loci, we performed a multi-stage GWAS of 11,705 BRCA1 carriers (of whom 5,920 were diagnosed with breast and 1,839 were diagnosed with ovarian cancer), with a further replication in an additional sample of 2,646 BRCA1 carriers. We identified a novel breast cancer risk modifier locus at 1q32 for BRCA1 carriers (rs2290854, P = 2.7×10-8, HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.09-1.20). In addition, we identified two novel ovarian cancer risk modifier loci: 17q21.31 (rs17631303, P = 1.4×10-8, HR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.17-1.38) and 4q32.3 (rs4691139, P = 3.4×10-8, HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.17-1.38). The 4q32.3 locus was not associated with ovarian cancer risk in the general population or BRCA2 carriers, suggesting a BRCA1-specific associat

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead